Data notesMixed PR + single-member systemCoalition mapping is approximateSingle-member seats on a uniform swing
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 19 pollsters, newest 2026-06-26. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
FdI28.0%±1.1▼ -0.1
PD21.6%±1.1▼ -0.1
M5S12.7%±1.1
FI7.9%±1.1
Lega6.5%±1.1▼ -0.3
AVS6.4%±1.1▼ -0.1
IV2.3%±1.1▼ -0.1
In this average: BiDiMedia, Cassandra, Demopolis, EMG, Eumetra, Europe Elects, Ipsos, Istituto Piepoli, Only Numbers, PolitPro, Politico Europe, SWG, Sigma Piave, Sondaggi BiDiMedia. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.