Data notesSecond-vote proportional (2025 reform)5% threshold decides list seatsOverhang/levelling seats abolished
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 10 pollsters, newest 2026-06-19. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
AfD28.1%±1.1▼ -0.2
Union22.1%±1.1▼ -0.6
Gru13.9%±1.1▲ +0.4
SPD12.4%±1.1▼ -0.1
Lin10.8%±1.1▼ -0.4
FDP4.0%±1.1▲ +0.5
BSW3.2%±1.1▼ -0.2
Threshold watch — near the 5% Bundestag threshold: FDP 4.0%. A party landing the wrong side of the line wins no list seats, so small moves here swing the whole chamber.
In this average: Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, INSA, Infratest dimap, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.