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The bracket and every completed result come from the public scoreboard feed on each refresh; only the matches that remain are re-simulated (20000 runs, logistic Elo). Eliminated teams carry zero forward odds; no future scores or winners are invented.","source":"Match results and bracket ingested automatically from ESPN's public World Cup scoreboard feed, last completed match 2026-07-19.","methodology":"Win probabilities come from a logistic Elo curve (P = 1 / (1 + 10^(-(Ra-Rb)/400))), the same engine the MLB/NFL models use. The group stage is over, so it is not re-simulated; instead the real fixed knockout bracket is taken as given, the Round-of-32 ties that have already been played are applied as fact, and only the matches still to come are simulated single-elimination to the final (ties resolved by a rating-nudged coin-flip standing in for extra time / penalties). 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