{"status":"ok","updated":"2026-08-29","cycle":2026,"senate":{"total_up":35,"dem_holding":13,"rep_holding":22,"dem_not_up":34,"rep_not_up":31,"seats_for_majority":51,"tossups":4,"ratings":{"Safe D":7,"Likely D":3,"Lean D":1,"Toss-up":4,"Lean R":2,"Likely R":5,"Safe R":13,"Uncertain":0},"expected_dem_seats_up":{"mean":13.7,"low":10,"high":17},"expected_balance":{"base_dem":34,"base_rep":31,"dem_mean":47.7,"dem_low":44,"dem_high":51,"rep_mean":52.3,"rep_low":49,"rep_high":56},"races":[{"state":"Delaware","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Open-leaning safe-blue seat"},{"state":"Illinois","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Open (Durbin retiring); safe-blue state"},{"state":"Massachusetts","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Markey; safe-blue state"},{"state":"New Jersey","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Booker; blue-state hold"},{"state":"New Mexico","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Lujan; blue-leaning hold"},{"state":"Oregon","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Merkley; safe-blue state"},{"state":"Rhode Island","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Reed; safe-blue state"},{"state":"Virginia","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Warner; blue-trending but contested"},{"state":"Minnesota","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Open (Smith retiring); blue-leaning"},{"state":"New Hampshire","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Lean D","runner":"Open (Shaheen retiring); swing state"},{"state":"Michigan","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open (Peters retiring); marquee battleground"},{"state":"Georgia","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Ossoff; top GOP target in a purple state"},{"state":"Maine","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Collins; D-leaning state, veteran incumbent"},{"state":"North Carolina","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open-leaning battleground (Tillis seat)"},{"state":"Texas","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Lean R","runner":"Cornyn seat; reddish but Dems contest"},{"state":"Ohio","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Lean R","runner":"Special (Vance seat); red-trending"},{"state":"Iowa","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Ernst; red-trending state"},{"state":"Alaska","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Sullivan; red state, ranked-choice wildcard"},{"state":"Florida","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Special (Rubio seat); red-trending"},{"state":"Montana","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Daines; red state"},{"state":"Kansas","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Marshall; red state"},{"state":"Louisiana","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Cassidy; red state"},{"state":"Mississippi","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Hyde-Smith; red state"},{"state":"South Carolina","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Graham; red state"},{"state":"Tennessee","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Hagerty; red state"},{"state":"West Virginia","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Capito; deep-red state"},{"state":"Alabama","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Tuberville seat; deep-red state"},{"state":"Arkansas","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Cotton; deep-red state"},{"state":"Idaho","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Risch; deep-red state"},{"state":"Kentucky","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (McConnell retiring); deep-red state"},{"state":"Nebraska","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Ricketts; red state"},{"state":"Oklahoma","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Mullin; deep-red state"},{"state":"South Dakota","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Rounds; deep-red state"},{"state":"Wyoming","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Lummis; deepest-red state"},{"state":"Colorado","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Hickenlooper; blue-leaning state"}]},"governor":{"total_up":36,"dem_holding":18,"rep_holding":18,"tossups":6,"ratings":{"Safe D":6,"Likely D":5,"Lean D":3,"Toss-up":6,"Lean R":3,"Likely R":4,"Safe R":9,"Uncertain":0},"expected_dem_wins":{"mean":17.0,"low":11,"high":23},"races":[{"state":"California","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Open (Newsom term-limited); blue-state hold"},{"state":"New York","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Hochul; blue-state, primary-watch"},{"state":"Illinois","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Pritzker; blue-state hold"},{"state":"Colorado","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Open (Polis term-limited); blue-leaning"},{"state":"Minnesota","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Lean D","runner":"Walz; blue-leaning but contested"},{"state":"New Mexico","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Open (Lujan Grisham term-limited); blue-leaning"},{"state":"Maine","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Lean D","runner":"Open (Mills term-limited); D-leaning state"},{"state":"Connecticut","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Lamont; blue-state hold"},{"state":"Hawaii","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Green; deep-blue state"},{"state":"Rhode Island","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"McKee; blue-state hold"},{"state":"Pennsylvania","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Lean D","runner":"Shapiro; popular incumbent, swing state"},{"state":"Michigan","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open (Whitmer term-limited); battleground"},{"state":"Kansas","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open (Kelly term-limited); red-state D seat"},{"state":"Wisconsin","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open (Evers); marquee battleground"},{"state":"Arizona","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Hobbs; battleground, won narrowly in 2022"},{"state":"Oregon","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Likely D","runner":"Kotek; blue-leaning state"},{"state":"Maryland","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Moore; deep-blue state"},{"state":"Massachusetts","incumbent_party":"D","rating":"Safe D","runner":"Healey; deep-blue state, seeking a second term"},{"state":"Georgia","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Open (Kemp term-limited); battleground"},{"state":"Nevada","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Toss-up","runner":"Lombardo; battleground state"},{"state":"New Hampshire","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Lean R","runner":"Ayotte; swing state, GOP-held"},{"state":"Florida","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Lean R","runner":"Open (DeSantis term-limited); red-trending"},{"state":"Ohio","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Open (DeWine term-limited); red-trending"},{"state":"Iowa","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Open (Reynolds); red-trending state"},{"state":"Texas","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Abbott; reddish state"},{"state":"Alaska","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Likely R","runner":"Open (Dunleavy term-limited); red state"},{"state":"South Carolina","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (McMaster term-limited); red state"},{"state":"Alabama","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (Ivey term-limited); deep-red state"},{"state":"Tennessee","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (Lee term-limited); deep-red state"},{"state":"Oklahoma","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (Stitt term-limited); deep-red state"},{"state":"Arkansas","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Sanders; deep-red state"},{"state":"South Dakota","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Rhoden; deep-red state"},{"state":"Idaho","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Little; deep-red state"},{"state":"Nebraska","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Pillen; red state"},{"state":"Wyoming","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Safe R","runner":"Open (Gordon term-limited); deepest-red state"},{"state":"Vermont","incumbent_party":"R","rating":"Lean R","runner":"Scott; popular GOP incumbent in a blue state"}]},"rating_order":["Safe D","Likely D","Lean D","Toss-up","Lean R","Likely R","Safe R"],"rating_p_dem":{"Safe D":0.97,"Likely D":0.88,"Lean D":0.68,"Toss-up":0.5,"Lean R":0.32,"Likely R":0.12,"Safe R":0.03,"Uncertain":0.5},"summary":"35 Senate seats are up in 2026 (13 Democratic-held, 22 Republican-held) and 36 governorships (18 D-held, 18 R-held). On current race ratings, Republicans start with 31 Senate seats not on the ballot to the Democrats' 34; the 4 Senate toss-ups \u00b7 and which way the leaners break \u00b7 decide control of the chamber.","data_note":"This is a ratings aggregation, not a model. It carries no polls, no fundraising and no fundamentals: it lists the seats actually up in 2026, their incumbent party, and a Cook/Sabato-style consensus rating for each, then maps those labels to win probabilities to produce an expected-balance range. The expected Senate balance is a ratings-based nowcast \u00b7 read it as 'where the consensus sits today', not a forecast of November. Races whose rating is genuinely unsettled are marked 'Uncertain' rather than assigned a specific lean. Seats, incumbents and which states hold a race are factual; the ratings reflect the publicly reported consensus and will move.","methodology":"Rating -> P(Democratic win): Safe D .97, Likely D .88, Lean D .68, Toss-up .50, Lean R .32, Likely R .12, Safe R .03; Uncertain counted as .50 but flagged. Expected seats = sum of those probabilities. The low/high band flips every competitive race (Toss-up / Lean / Uncertain) to one side; Safe and Likely seats are held fixed, so the band shows what the close races decide. Senate balance adds the seats not up this cycle (pre-election standing 53 R / 47 D).","sources":"Seats up & incumbents: official 2026 election class. Ratings: Cook Political Report / Sabato's Crystal Ball / Inside Elections-style consensus, as commonly reported."}