{"updated": "2026-08-29", "canada": [{"code": "ON", "name": "Ontario", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of Ontario", "total_seats": 124, "majority": 63, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "PCP", "last_election_year": 2025, "parties": [{"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 80, "seats_proj": 83}, {"abbr": "ONL", "name": "Ontario Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 14, "seats_proj": 16}, {"abbr": "NDP", "name": "New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 27, "seats_proj": 22}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Green", "colour": "#3D9B35", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent / other", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 1, "seats_proj": 1}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 post-2025 Ontario polling (e.g. Abacus Data, Ipsos through 2025) shows Doug Ford's PCs holding a commanding ~47-50% lead over the Liberals (~24-27%) and a fading NDP. Seats are a uniform-swing estimate off the Feb 2025 result \u00b7 PCs strengthen their majority, the NDP slips behind the Liberals as official opposition.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "QC", "name": "Quebec", "legislature": "National Assembly of Quebec", "total_seats": 125, "majority": 63, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "CAQ", "last_election_year": 2022, "parties": [{"abbr": "CAQ", "name": "Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec", "colour": "#0098D8", "seats_last": 90, "seats_proj": 16}, {"abbr": "QLP", "name": "Quebec Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 21, "seats_proj": 39}, {"abbr": "QS", "name": "Qu\u00e9bec solidaire", "colour": "#FF5505", "seats_last": 11, "seats_proj": 9}, {"abbr": "PQ", "name": "Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois", "colour": "#004C9B", "seats_last": 3, "seats_proj": 61}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 338Canada's June 2026 Quebec projection (ahead of the fixed Oct 5 2026 election) has the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois first on ~29% and averaging ~61 of 125 seats, the Liberals second (~25%, ~39 seats), with the CAQ collapsed from its 2022 majority to the mid-teens and Qu\u00e9bec solidaire steady. Seats shown are that documented projection \u00b7 a near-total reversal of the 2022 result.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "BC", "name": "British Columbia", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of British Columbia", "total_seats": 93, "majority": 47, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "NDP", "last_election_year": 2024, "parties": [{"abbr": "NDP", "name": "BC New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 47, "seats_proj": 45}, {"abbr": "BCC", "name": "Conservative Party of BC", "colour": "#0C4DA2", "seats_last": 44, "seats_proj": 46}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "BC Green", "colour": "#3D9B35", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 BC polling has tightened sharply since the 2024 one-seat NDP majority. A Feb 2026 Pallas Data poll had NDP 42 / Conservative 37; by June 2026 Leger put the BC Conservatives ahead (45 to NDP's 41) while Research Co. had the race tied 42-42. A uniform swing off the knife-edge 2024 result flips a couple of seats, giving the Conservatives a thin plurality \u00b7 short of the 47 needed for a majority.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "AB", "name": "Alberta", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of Alberta", "total_seats": 87, "majority": 44, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "UCP", "last_election_year": 2023, "parties": [{"abbr": "UCP", "name": "United Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 49, "seats_proj": 53}, {"abbr": "NDP", "name": "Alberta New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 38, "seats_proj": 34}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 2026 Alberta polling (Leger April 2026 ~53% UCP to ~36% NDP; Abacus Data Feb 2026 ~49-36) shows Danielle Smith's UCP widening its lead over Naheed Nenshi's NDP relative to the 2023 election. A uniform swing off 2023 hands the UCP a few more seats at the NDP's expense; the UCP majority grows.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "MB", "name": "Manitoba", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of Manitoba", "total_seats": 57, "majority": 29, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "NDP", "last_election_year": 2023, "parties": [{"abbr": "NDP", "name": "Manitoba New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 34, "seats_proj": 34}, {"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 22, "seats_proj": 22}, {"abbr": "LIB", "name": "Manitoba Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 1, "seats_proj": 1}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2023 Manitoba general election (Wab Kinew NDP majority). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "SK", "name": "Saskatchewan", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan", "total_seats": 61, "majority": 31, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "SASKP", "last_election_year": 2024, "parties": [{"abbr": "SASKP", "name": "Saskatchewan Party", "colour": "#2F8C46", "seats_last": 34, "seats_proj": 34}, {"abbr": "NDP", "name": "Saskatchewan New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 27, "seats_proj": 27}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2024 Saskatchewan general election (Scott Moe Sask. Party majority). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "NS", "name": "Nova Scotia", "legislature": "Nova Scotia House of Assembly", "total_seats": 55, "majority": 28, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "PCP", "last_election_year": 2024, "parties": [{"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 43, "seats_proj": 43}, {"abbr": "NDP", "name": "Nova Scotia New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 9, "seats_proj": 9}, {"abbr": "LIB", "name": "Nova Scotia Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 1, "seats_proj": 1}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2024 Nova Scotia general election (Tim Houston PC majority). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "NB", "name": "New Brunswick", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick", "total_seats": 49, "majority": 25, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "LIB", "last_election_year": 2024, "parties": [{"abbr": "LIB", "name": "New Brunswick Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 31, "seats_proj": 31}, {"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 16, "seats_proj": 16}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Green", "colour": "#3D9B35", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2024 New Brunswick general election (Susan Holt Liberal majority). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "NL", "name": "Newfoundland & Labrador", "legislature": "House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador", "total_seats": 40, "majority": 21, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "PCP", "last_election_year": 2025, "parties": [{"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 21, "seats_proj": 21}, {"abbr": "LIB", "name": "NL Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 15, "seats_proj": 15}, {"abbr": "NDP", "name": "NL New Democratic", "colour": "#F58220", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2025 Newfoundland & Labrador general election, adjusted for the Topsail-Paradise recount (Tony Wakeham PC majority \u00b7 21 of 40, the first PC majority since 2011). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "PE", "name": "Prince Edward Island", "legislature": "Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island", "total_seats": 27, "majority": 14, "system": "First-past-the-post", "incumbent": "PCP", "last_election_year": 2023, "parties": [{"abbr": "PCP", "name": "Progressive Conservative", "colour": "#1A4782", "seats_last": 22, "seats_proj": 22}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Green", "colour": "#3D9B35", "seats_last": 3, "seats_proj": 3}, {"abbr": "LIB", "name": "PEI Liberal", "colour": "#D71920", "seats_last": 2, "seats_proj": 2}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2023 Prince Edward Island general election (Dennis King PC majority). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}], "australia": [{"code": "NSW", "name": "New South Wales", "legislature": "NSW Legislative Assembly", "total_seats": 93, "majority": 47, "system": "Instant-runoff (preferential)", "incumbent": "ALP", "last_election_year": 2023, "parties": [{"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 45, "seats_proj": 45}, {"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal/National Coalition", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 36, "seats_proj": 36}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Greens", "colour": "#10A88B", "seats_last": 3, "seats_proj": 3}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 9, "seats_proj": 9}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2023 NSW state election (Chris Minns Labor, governing in minority). Live state polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "VIC", "name": "Victoria", "legislature": "Victorian Legislative Assembly", "total_seats": 88, "majority": 45, "system": "Instant-runoff (preferential)", "incumbent": "ALP", "last_election_year": 2022, "parties": [{"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 56, "seats_proj": 43}, {"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal/National Coalition", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 28, "seats_proj": 39}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Greens", "colour": "#10A88B", "seats_last": 4, "seats_proj": 4}, {"abbr": "OTH", "name": "Other / minor", "colour": "#C98A2E", "seats_last": 0, "seats_proj": 2}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 ahead of the 28 Nov 2026 election the Coalition has erased Labor's 2022 margin \u00b7 RedBridge had Labor 52-48 in Sep 2025 but Resolve Strategic (Dec 2025) and DemosAU (2026) have since put the Coalition ahead, around 51-49 up to 55-45 two-party-preferred, as Jacinta Allan's approval slid. A pendulum swing of roughly that size off the 2022 result costs Labor its majority; seats shown are a uniform-swing estimate around a hung-to-Coalition outcome.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "QLD", "name": "Queensland", "legislature": "Queensland Legislative Assembly", "total_seats": 93, "majority": 47, "system": "Instant-runoff (preferential)", "incumbent": "LNP", "last_election_year": 2024, "parties": [{"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal National Party", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 52, "seats_proj": 54}, {"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 36, "seats_proj": 34}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Greens", "colour": "#10A88B", "seats_last": 1, "seats_proj": 1}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent / Katter's", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 4, "seats_proj": 4}], "data_note": "Live \u00b7 a year into the Crisafulli LNP government, Queensland polling has the LNP extending its 2024 win \u00b7 DemosAU (Oct 2025) had it 54-46 two-party-preferred and Feb 2026 readings ~56-44, a swing of roughly 2 points toward the LNP. A uniform swing off the 2024 result nudges a couple of seats from Labor to the LNP, widening the majority.", "baseline": false}, {"code": "WA", "name": "Western Australia", "legislature": "WA Legislative Assembly", "total_seats": 59, "majority": 30, "system": "Instant-runoff (preferential)", "incumbent": "ALP", "last_election_year": 2025, "parties": [{"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 46, "seats_proj": 46}, {"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 7, "seats_proj": 7}, {"abbr": "NAT", "name": "National", "colour": "#006946", "seats_last": 6, "seats_proj": 6}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2025 WA state election, 8 March 2025 (Roger Cook Labor majority \u00b7 ALP 46, Liberal 7, National 6; WAEC final). Live state polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "SA", "name": "South Australia", "legislature": "SA House of Assembly", "total_seats": 47, "majority": 24, "system": "Instant-runoff (preferential)", "incumbent": "ALP", "last_election_year": 2026, "parties": [{"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 34, "seats_proj": 34}, {"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 5, "seats_proj": 5}, {"abbr": "ONP", "name": "One Nation", "colour": "#ff6300", "seats_last": 4, "seats_proj": 4}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 4, "seats_proj": 4}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2026 SA state election, 21 March 2026 (Peter Malinauskas Labor landslide re-election \u00b7 Labor's best-ever seat result: ALP 34, Liberal 5, One Nation 4, Independents 4; ECSA, post-Narungga recount). Live state polling to follow.", "baseline": true}, {"code": "TAS", "name": "Tasmania", "legislature": "Tasmanian House of Assembly", "total_seats": 35, "majority": 18, "system": "Hare-Clark proportional (multi-member)", "incumbent": "LNP", "last_election_year": 2025, "parties": [{"abbr": "LNP", "name": "Liberal", "colour": "#1456A0", "seats_last": 14, "seats_proj": 14}, {"abbr": "ALP", "name": "Labor", "colour": "#E4002B", "seats_last": 10, "seats_proj": 10}, {"abbr": "GRN", "name": "Greens", "colour": "#10A88B", "seats_last": 5, "seats_proj": 5}, {"abbr": "IND", "name": "Independent / other", "colour": "#7A6FF0", "seats_last": 6, "seats_proj": 6}], "data_note": "Baseline: 2025 Tasmanian state election (Jeremy Rockliff Liberal minority; Hare-Clark routinely returns a hung parliament). Live polling to follow.", "baseline": true}], "note": "Standings shown as last elected \u00b7 a clearly-labelled baseline. Live provincial and state polling will be layered in as it is confidently sourced; figures equal to the last election are marked as baseline."}