{"iso":"ZM","name":"Zambia","flag":"\ud83c\uddff\ud83c\uddf2","vote":"National Assembly \u00b7 baseline forecast","model":"baseline","updated":"2021-08-12","source":"2021 election result, official count","credit":"No regular published party-by-party national polling. Shares are the National Assembly vote at the general election of 12 August 2021, official results as published by the Electoral Commission of Zambia. The only recent survey, run in December 2025 by consultants led by a University of Zambia demographer, was a presidential head-to-head that put incumbent Hakainde Hichilema near 60 percent with the combined opposition near 35 percent, but gave no party-by-party legislative breakdown, so the 2021 result is retained as the baseline. The next general election is set for 13 August 2026. Smaller parties are not shown.","shares":{"UPND":46.2,"PF":35.7,"IND":14.3,"SP":1.3},"polls":[],"parties":{"UPND":{"name":"United Party for National Development","color":"#D23438"},"PF":{"name":"Patriotic Front","color":"#3064B0"},"IND":{"name":"Independents","color":"#9a9a9a"},"SP":{"name":"Socialist Party","color":"#DE2827"}},"primer":{"system":"Presidential republic","head_of_state":"President Hakainde Hichilema","legislature":"National Assembly, unicameral, 166 members in total, 156 of them directly elected.","electoral_system":"Elected members are chosen by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies.","government_now":"Hichilema of the United Party for National Development has governed since defeating incumbent Edgar Lungu at the August 2021 election.","context":"General elections for the presidency, National Assembly and local offices are due on 13 August 2026. A December 2025 poll put Hichilema near 60 percent against a divided opposition, though independent polling remains scarce. Lungu conceded the 2021 result in a televised statement.","sources":"Cross-checked against the English-language MediaWiki encyclopedic record via its public API, 2 July 2026."},"parties_info":{"UPND":["United Party for National Development","","Liberal, business-friendly party of President Hakainde Hichilema; won power in 2021 and governs, taking 82 of the elected seats."],"PF":["Patriotic Front","","Populist party that governed from 2011 to 2021 under Michael Sata and Edgar Lungu; now the main opposition with 60 seats."],"IND":["Independents","","MPs elected with no party label; an unusually large bloc of 13 won seats in 2021."],"SP":["Socialist Party","","Left-wing party led by Fred M'membe; contests the presidency but won no National Assembly seats in 2021."]},"seats_now":{"chamber":"National Assembly","as_of":"2021 election","total":167,"seats":{"UPND":82,"PF":60,"IND":13,"SP":0}},"region_winners":{"Central":"UPND","Copperbelt":"UPND","Lusaka":"UPND","Southern":"UPND","Western":"UPND","Northwestern":"UPND","Eastern":"PF","Luapula":"PF","Muchinga":"PF","Northern":"PF"},"region_meta":{"election":"2021 Zambian general election (12 August 2021) \u00b7 National Assembly","source":"official results as published by the Electoral Commission of Zambia","note":"Each province shaded by the party that won the most National Assembly constituency seats there in 2021: the United Party for National Development swept the south, west, north-west and the populous Copperbelt, Lusaka and Central, while the Patriotic Front held the east and the north-east; independents also won scattered seats that this province-level shading does not show."},"has_geo":true}