{"iso":"JP","name":"Japan","flag":"\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5","vote":"House of Representatives proportional vote \u00b7 vote-share forecast","model":"voteshare","updated":"2026-06-14","source":"Mean of the four monthly Senkyo.com/JX Press voting-intention surveys taken since the February 2026 election","credit":"Proportional-vote voting-intention surveys by Senkyo.com with JX Press, compiled from the public polling record. Undecided and no-answer respondents are not redistributed, so shares do not sum to 100. The February 2026 snap election returned Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's LDP-Ishin coalition, and the CRA is the merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito.","shares":{"LDP":31.4,"CRA":14.3,"ISHIN":6.0,"DPFP":8.2,"SANSEI":7.5,"MIRAI":5.3,"JCP":5.9,"REIWA":1.8,"CPJ":4.1,"SDP":1.3},"polls":[{"date":"2026-06-14","pollster":"Senkyo.com/JX Press","shares":{"LDP":31.0,"CRA":14.3,"ISHIN":6.1,"DPFP":8.4,"SANSEI":7.7,"MIRAI":5.5,"JCP":5.9,"REIWA":1.8,"CPJ":4.1,"SDP":1.4}},{"date":"2026-05-17","pollster":"Senkyo.com/JX Press","shares":{"LDP":34.3,"CRA":14.5,"ISHIN":5.2,"DPFP":7.1,"SANSEI":5.9,"MIRAI":4.2,"JCP":6.2,"REIWA":1.5,"CPJ":3.9,"SDP":0.7}},{"date":"2026-04-12","pollster":"Senkyo.com/JX Press","shares":{"LDP":33.3,"CRA":16.2,"ISHIN":5.4,"DPFP":8.8,"SANSEI":6.9,"MIRAI":5.5,"JCP":4.6,"REIWA":2.2,"CPJ":3.4,"SDP":0.4}},{"date":"2026-03-15","pollster":"Senkyo.com/JX Press","shares":{"LDP":32.4,"CRA":14.7,"ISHIN":6.2,"DPFP":11.5,"SANSEI":4.2,"MIRAI":8.2,"JCP":5.8,"REIWA":1.5,"CPJ":2.8,"SDP":0.6}}],"parties":{"LDP":{"name":"\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Jiy\u016b-Minshut\u014d)","color":"#D7003A","name_en":"Liberal Democratic Party"},"CRA":{"name":"Centrist Reform Alliance","color":"#0073BD"},"ISHIN":{"name":"\u65e5\u672c\u7dad\u65b0\u306e\u4f1a (Nippon Ishin no Kai)","color":"#B8CE43","name_en":"Japan Innovation Party"},"DPFP":{"name":"\u56fd\u6c11\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Kokumin Minshut\u014d)","color":"#FFBA00","name_en":"Democratic Party For the People"},"SANSEI":{"name":"\u53c2\u653f\u515a (Sanseit\u014d)","color":"#EE7300","name_en":"Sanseito"},"MIRAI":{"name":"\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u307f\u3089\u3044","color":"#84E6D5","name_en":"Team Mirai"},"JCP":{"name":"\u65e5\u672c\u5171\u7523\u515a (Nihon Ky\u014dsant\u014d)","color":"#FF5466","name_en":"Japanese Communist Party"},"REIWA":{"name":"\u308c\u3044\u308f\u65b0\u9078\u7d44","color":"#ED008C","name_en":"Reiwa Shinsengumi"},"CPJ":{"name":"\u65e5\u672c\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a (Nippon Hoshut\u014d)","color":"#0A82DC","name_en":"Conservative Party of Japan"},"SDP":{"name":"\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Shakai Minshut\u014d)","color":"#3D9BE7","name_en":"Social Democratic Party"}},"primer":{"system":"Parliamentary constitutional monarchy","head_of_state":"Emperor Naruhito, who fulfils head-of-state functions by constitutional convention","head_of_government":"Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi","legislature":"National Diet, bicameral. The House of Representatives (lower house) has 465 members serving up to four years.","electoral_system":"Lower-house members are elected by a parallel system, 289 in single-member districts and 176 by regional proportional representation.","government_now":"The LDP under Takaichi holds a two-thirds lower-house supermajority won in February 2026, with the Japan Innovation Party providing confidence and supply.","context":"Takaichi became Japan's first woman prime minister in October 2025. At the snap election of 8 February 2026 the LDP won a record 316 seats, while the new Centrist Reform Alliance collapsed and the coalition still lacks an upper-house majority.","sources":"Cross-checked against the English-language MediaWiki encyclopedic record via its public API, 2 July 2026."},"parties_info":{"LDP":["\u81ea\u7531\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Jiy\u016b-Minshut\u014d)","Liberal Democratic Party","Big-tent conservative party (centre-right) that has governed Japan for almost all of the postwar era; under PM Sanae Takaichi it won a two-thirds lower-house supermajority in Feb 2026 and governs with Ishin."],"CRA":["Centrist Reform Alliance","","Centrist-to-centre-left main opposition, led by former PM Yoshihiko Noda; formed by the 2025-26 merger of the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party and the Buddhist-backed centrist Komeito."],"ISHIN":["\u65e5\u672c\u7dad\u65b0\u306e\u4f1a (Nippon Ishin no Kai)","Japan Innovation Party","Right-leaning populist reform party rooted in Osaka, pushing small government and decentralisation; now the LDP's coalition confidence-and-supply partner."],"DPFP":["\u56fd\u6c11\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Kokumin Minshut\u014d)","Democratic Party For the People","Centrist party focused on take-home pay, wages and energy; sits in opposition but often cooperates with the government and is popular with younger voters."],"SANSEI":["\u53c2\u653f\u515a (Sanseit\u014d)","Sanseito (Political Participation Party)","Right-wing nationalist populist party running on a 'Japanese First', anti-immigration message that grew via social media; opposition."],"MIRAI":["\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u307f\u3089\u3044","Team Mirai","New tech-reform party founded in 2025 by AI engineer Takahiro Anno promoting digital democracy; entered the lower house for the first time in 2026; opposition."],"JCP":["\u65e5\u672c\u5171\u7523\u515a (Nihon Ky\u014dsant\u014d)","Japanese Communist Party","Long-established left-wing party, anti-militarist and critical of the US alliance; opposition."],"REIWA":["\u308c\u3044\u308f\u65b0\u9078\u7d44","Reiwa Shinsengumi","Left-wing anti-austerity populist party founded 2019 by actor Taro Yamamoto; opposition."],"CPJ":["\u65e5\u672c\u4fdd\u5b88\u515a (Nippon Hoshut\u014d)","Conservative Party of Japan","Right-wing nationalist, socially conservative party founded 2023; tiny and currently holds no lower-house seats."],"SDP":["\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a (Shakai Minshut\u014d)","Social Democratic Party","Small pacifist left-wing party, heir to the old Japan Socialist Party; currently holds no lower-house seats."]},"seats_now":{"chamber":"House of Representatives","as_of":"February 2026 snap election","total":465,"seats":{"LDP":316,"CRA":49,"ISHIN":36,"DPFP":28,"SANSEI":15,"MIRAI":11,"JCP":4,"REIWA":1,"CPJ":0,"SDP":0}},"region_winners":{"Kagoshima Prefecture":"LDP","\u014cita Prefecture":"LDP","Fukuoka Prefecture":"LDP","Saga Prefecture":"LDP","Nagasaki Prefecture":"LDP","Kumamoto Prefecture":"LDP","Miyazaki Prefecture":"LDP","Tokushima Prefecture":"LDP","Kagawa Prefecture":"LDP","Ehime Prefecture":"LDP","K\u014dchi Prefecture":"LDP","Shimane Prefecture":"LDP","Yamaguchi Prefecture":"LDP","Tottori Prefecture":"LDP","Hy\u014dgo Prefecture":"LDP","Ky\u014dto Prefecture":"LDP","Fukui Prefecture":"LDP","Ishikawa Prefecture":"LDP","Toyama Prefecture":"LDP","Niigata Prefecture":"LDP","Yamagata Prefecture":"LDP","Akita Prefecture":"LDP","Aomori Prefecture":"LDP","Iwate Prefecture":"LDP","Miyagi Prefecture":"LDP","Fukushima Prefecture":"LDP","Ibaraki Prefecture":"LDP","Chiba Prefecture":"LDP","Tokyo":"LDP","Kanagawa Prefecture":"LDP","Shizuoka Prefecture":"LDP","Aichi Prefecture":"LDP","Mie Prefecture":"LDP","Wakayama Prefecture":"LDP","\u014csaka Prefecture":"ISHIN","Okayama Prefecture":"LDP","Hiroshima Prefecture":"LDP","Hokkaid\u014d":"LDP","Okinawa Prefecture":"LDP","Gunma Prefecture":"LDP","Nagano Prefecture":"LDP","Tochigi Prefecture":"LDP","Gifu Prefecture":"LDP","Shiga Prefecture":"LDP","Saitama Prefecture":"LDP","Yamanashi Prefecture":"LDP","Nara Prefecture":"LDP"},"region_meta":{"election":"2026 House of Representatives election (8 February 2026) \u00b7 proportional party-list vote","source":"Official results as published, proportional-representation party-list vote share by prefecture","note":"Each prefecture is shaded by the party that led the proportional-representation party-list vote there at the 8 February 2026 lower-house election. Japan uses a parallel system, so this is the leading list party in the prefecture, not necessarily the single-member-district seat winner. Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party led the list vote in 46 of 47 prefectures in its record landslide, and the Japan Innovation Party led only in its Osaka stronghold."},"has_geo":true,"next_election":{"date":"2030-02","title":"Japanese general election (due by February 2030)","chamber":"House of Representatives","type":"expected"}}